Wedoany.com Report-Apr. 15, JP Morgan recently revised its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, pointing to increased OPEC+ production and reduced global demand. The bank lowered its 2025 Brent crude forecast to $66 per barrel from $73 and its 2026 estimate to $58 from $61. For WTI crude, it adjusted the 2025 outlook to $62 per barrel from $69 and the 2026 forecast to $53 from $57.
People walk by the JP Morgan & Chase Co. building in New York October 24, 2013.
Brent crude futures were trading around $65, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood near $61.
The bank now anticipates global oil demand to rise by 0.8 million barrels per day (mbd), with growth averaging 0.3 mbd in the third quarter. JP Morgan stated: "Higher production volumes from the OPEC+ alliance indicate a shift in the reaction function, which, when combined with weaker demand, will push balances into a large surplus and drive Brent down below $60 towards year-end."
JP Morgan analysts noted that the oil market is under pressure due to an 80% chance of a mild economic slowdown, coupled with an additional 1 mbd of OPEC+ production. They indicated that OPEC+ could gain market share in 2025. However, stabilizing Brent at $60 per barrel in 2026 would require the alliance to reverse recent production increases and implement further cuts.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs also revised its Brent and WTI forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing higher OPEC+ supply and potential economic challenges impacting demand.
